In the organization: how to analyze future scenarios?

          We live in a world in constant transformation. Technological, social, economic, and cultural changes happen at a dizzying pace, and organizations that want to survive and thrive must develop a crucial skill: the ability to foresee the future. Future scenario analysis is not guesswork—it's a strategic tool based on data, organizational culture, and human sensitivity. Leaders and teams who understand this practice become more resilient, innovative, and better prepared to make conscious decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Scenario analysis is a methodology that allows organizations to explore different future possibilities based on trends, risks, opportunities, and external forces. According to studies from Oxford University and MIT, organizations that integrate scenario planning into their strategic processes display greater adaptive flexibility, respond better to crises, and take greater advantage of emerging opportunities. A practical example is Starbucks' response during the pandemic: the company had already been tracking digitalization and delivery trends, and was able to quickly redesign its services to maintain customer experience even amid social distancing.

For this process to be effective, it must integrate reason and emotion, data and imagination, science and art. This is where powerful contributions from culture and theater come in. The MAT method – Mindset, Action, and Theater, developed by Antônio Carlos dos Santos, proposes that leadership must align strategic thinking (mindset), proactive decision-making (action), and theatrical communication skills (theater) to guide their teams through complex scenarios. When preparing a group to think about the future, it’s not enough to present spreadsheets and graphs: one must awaken emotion, purpose, and collective creativity.

In this context, organizational culture becomes the “living fabric” where future ideas are sewn. Environments that value diversity, dialogue, and active listening are more capable of building scenarios that reflect not only technical forecasts but also human values, desires, and fears. Corporate theater, through the ThM – Theater Movement method, teaches us that the body and expression are indispensable allies in transforming imagined futures into shared experiences—not just solitary exercises of top-down authority. Planning thus becomes a performative act of symbolic and collective construction.

In practice, building scenarios requires five steps: (1) identifying trends and weak signals; (2) analyzing key variables (economic, technological, social, political, environmental); (3) creating possible narratives (optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios); (4) defining adaptive strategies; and (5) simulations and validations with teams. These steps should not be carried out rigidly. This is where the Quasar K+ Strategic Planning method, also created by Antônio Carlos dos Santos, demonstrates its power. Anchored in critical reflection, it proposes a systemic and interdisciplinary approach, in which the organization observes scenarios as expanding constellations, capable of reorganizing themselves with intelligence and sensitivity.

It is essential that leaders master the art of communication when conducting this process. The books “Strategic Communication: the Art of Speaking Well” and “Breathing, Voice, and Diction”, both authored by Santos, are true handbooks for anyone who wishes to lead meetings, co-creation workshops, and strategic presentations with clarity, empathy, and impact. After all, when it comes to presenting a future scenario, content matters—but how it's delivered is what truly mobilizes. A confident voice, clear diction, and well-developed stage presence make all the difference between engaging or boring a team.

Another key aspect is transforming these scenarios into concrete actions. Scenario analysis cannot stop at words or PowerPoint presentations. Teams need to be inspired to move. The book “Moving Letters: the Art of Writing Well”, also by Santos, invites leaders and managers to communicate in writing with emotion, technique, and purpose. Every future strategy must be documented in a way that inspires action and commitment—not just fulfill a bureaucratic obligation.

To engage diverse audiences in scenario analysis—especially workers who are not in leadership roles—the TBMB – Mané Beiçudo Puppet Theater method offers an innovative solution. By using puppets and accessible language, it turns complex content into visual and emotional metaphors, which facilitate understanding and active participation. This approach has already been successfully implemented in cooperatives, public schools, and NGOs, proving that any social group is capable of thinking strategically when provided with the right stimuli.

The connection between culture, theater, and planning is not an artistic utopia but a reality grounded in evidence. Research from Stanford University shows that organizations using visual narratives and involving body and emotion in decision-making increase team engagement by up to 60% and significantly improve the quality of decisions. In other words, thinking about the future is not just about analyzing charts, but also about staging possibilities, feeling the impacts, and building meaning together.

Therefore, if we want organizations better prepared for tomorrow, we must shape more sensitive leaders, more engaged teams, and more humane organizational cultures. Future scenario analysis is more than a management tool—it is an ethical exercise in imagination, collective responsibility, and hope. As theater teaches us, each act is a preparation for the next. And in organizations, each well-planned scenario is an invitation to live, create, and transform the future with courage and intelligence. 

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